Conflict analysis is often presented as a technical exercise: identifying actors, mapping interests, examining causes and tracking patterns of escalation. In practice, however, analysis is neither neutral nor purely technical. Analysts make choices about what constitutes the conflict, which actors and dynamics matter, what information to prioritise, and how uncertainty should be interpreted. These choices shape not only how conflicts are understood, but also the decisions that follow.
This course introduces the theory and practice of conflict analysis, combining conceptual foundations with practical analytical methods used by governments, international organisations, humanitarian and development actors, donors, researchers and policy analysts.
The course begins by questioning some of the assumptions underlying conflict analysis itself. What do we mean by “conflict”? What distinguishes analysis from information or description? Who defines the boundaries of a conflict? How do institutional mandates, political incentives, cognitive biases and uncertainty influence analytical judgement? We will examine why strong analysis does not necessarily produce better decisions and why apparently similar evidence can generate different interpretations.
The second part of the course introduces to the main families of conflict-analysis tools, including actor and power mapping, structural and root-cause analysis, timelines and dynamic analysis, and systems approaches. Rather than treating these tools as templates, we will examine what each tool allows an analyst to see, what it obscures, and when it is appropriate to use.
The final part turns from analysing conflict to using analysis in practice. We will examine how the purpose and intended user of an analysis influence analytical priorities, and how conflict analysis informs choices in areas such as policy, humanitarian action, conflict sensitivity, early warning and negotiation. Particular attention is paid to decision-making under constraint: situations in which information is incomplete, objectives compete, trade-offs are unavoidable and analysts must nevertheless make and defend judgements.
Throughout the course, we will work with contemporary conflict cases and professional analytical material. The objective is to learn to produce a single “correct” interpretation of a conflict, but to develop disciplined analytical judgement under conditions of complexity and uncertainty.
- Enseignant: SARAH KILANI